Revisiting the Padres' Juan Soto trades

A lot of the time, when I think about the San Diego Padres trading away the farm to get Juan Soto in 2022, I get so frustrated that I push the thought to the side and focus on something else. I don't want to dissect it any further.

However, with the Padres losing last night's game to two of the prospects that were sent away in the initial deal, it felt like a good time to dig it up to try and draw some conclusions.

The First Trade

Padres get:
Juan Soto
Josh Bell

Nationals get:
CJ Abrams
James Wood
MacKenzie Gore
Robert Hassell III
Luke Voit
Jarlin Susana

Alright, let's start here and we'll begin untangling in a second.

The Padres traded for one of the greatest hitters in baseball history, who was still 23 years old and had 2.5 years left until he hit free agency. I said it then and I'll say it again now, you make that deal every time. Especially when Peter Seidler seemed completely ready to pay whatever the bill was to get Tatis and Soto (and Merrill?) signed long-term to play through their primes with the Padres.

• Juan Soto finished his 1.5 years with the Padres sporting a 149 OPS+. That's about what he's posted for the Mets this year and only a couple of ticks down from what he did in Washington, when he helped lead the Nationals to a World Series title.
• Josh Bell hit .200 points below his career OPS while on the Padres. Those things just happen sometimes.
• CJ Abrams was an interesting prospect but not a sure-thing, there were concerns about his ability to hit for power (his .320 SLG with the Padres left a lot to be desired).
• James Wood was also an intriguing prospect, having hit 10 HRs in 50 games with the Lake Elsinore Storm that season, but there was reason to believe he'd struggle to control the strike zone with his 6'7" frame.
• MacKenzie Gore, finally called up with much hype around him, pitched to a 4.50 ERA and a 4.11 FIP with the Padres. His ERA+ of 84 said that either he had lost whatever development he had made before the COVID season or that it was going to take time, which the Padres didn't feel like they had.

I'll save you from my thoughts on the guys who haven't yet made it to the majors, and the Luke Voit / Eric Hosmer of it all.

If you don't play out the string of what actually happened, I'm still fine with this on paper. The Padres had to give up value to get Soto and Bell. The idea that they were going to win this trade was almost entirely tied to whether or not Soto was still on the Padres 5+ years after it happened.