Outside the box thinking about the Padres offseason

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Full disclosure, I tried to write a post the other day that analyzed the San Diego Padres' financial situation and got....confused. Well, not confused, but I didn't understand why my numbers (which put the 2025 Padres under the CBT) didn't align with the stories about the Padres being over the Competitive Balance Tax.

So, until I can figure that out, I wanted to take a look at the Padres offseason from a different perspective. A more annoying and pessimistic perspective.

What if....the Padres don't add any new money?

If the Padres let their expiring money go away and don't add any new money (outside of arbitration), what would the team look like then and what would their options be?

I feel like doing this will give us a pretty good baseline for where the Padres need to spend money as opposed to the ones where they just want to spend.

(Current) Roster Analysis

First, let's lay out the roster as it stands now and mark off anyone that's not likely to return without a new contract (that, in theory, the team wouldn't be signing under these made-up parameters).

Nick Pivetta
Michael King
Dylan Cease
Yu Darvish
Joe Musgrove
Randy Vasquez
JP Sears

Robert Suarez
Mason Miller
Jason Adam
Adrián Morejón
Jeremiah Estrada
Wandy Peralta
David Morgan
Bradgley Rodriguez
Yuki Matsui

Freddy Fermín
Elías Díaz
Luis Campusano

Luis Arráez
Jake Cronenworth
Xander Bogaerts
Manny Machado
Jose Iglesias
Mason McCoy
Will Wagner

Ramon Laureano
Jackson Merrill
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Bryce Johnson

Gavin Sheets
Ryan O'Hearn

First things first, that's not enough players....but it's close. I count 25 guys remaining after checking off the guys likely to leave in free agency, so we need to add at least one more guy.