Jackson Merrill signs 9-year, $135M extension with Padres

In a stunning move, the San Diego Padres have signed 21-year old centerfielder Jackson Merrill to a 9-year, $135-million contract extension, per Robert Murray (although it has seemingly been confirmed by everyone.)

This is a screaming deal. I haven't seen all of the details, but 9 years of $15M equals out to a total of $135M. Even if it he hits the max and gets up to $104M, you're still talking an average of $22.6M per year. That's less than what a lot of other guys on this team make.

I know the Padres probably jumped to sign this as fast as possible, because it's not every day your superstar 21-year old center fielder offers a long-term discount, but it also goes to show that Merrill isn't the type of player to worry about his value or hold out for top dollar in free agency. And the Padres get to look like a team unafraid to spend money, shaking off the reputation they nearly got saddled with this offseason.

Darren talked about this possibility last week, ahead of the news as always, and I got so excited about it that I made it into a video:

Let's quickly go through all of the reasons that this news is bonkers (in a good way).

Jackson Merrill has only played 1 MLB season

This might be the craziest part of all of this. A kid who can just barely buy a legal drink in the states, who has only played one MLB season (finishing 2nd in Rookie of the Year voting), getting a contract of this size is not very common.

From a team-building perspective, it actually reminds me quite a bit of the Houston Astros and how they built themselves into a powerhouse. For a period of time, the key to their success was signing their players to long contracts before that player had proven to be anything more than a prospect.

This has also been a strategy for other MLB teams, including the Padres. They signed Fernando Tatis to a 14-year contract after he had played in just 143 MLB regular season games (due to both injury and a COVID-shortened season), which is less than we saw from Merrill in just his rookie season.

I think a lot about Jon Singleton, who nearly took the Astros to court when it was obvious that they were not going to call him up to the MLB team and start his service time clock until he had agreed to sign a team-friendly deal. He eventually signed that deal, got called up and failed to live up to expectations.

Is it bad business? Well, yes and no. It certainly didn't make the Astros feel like a player-friendly destination, but it did protect them from a wide range of outcomes for Singleton. Had he turned into a superstar, it would've saved them a ton of money. If Tatis lives up to his incredible potential, his contract will be a money-saver in that he would've made more by going into free agency and creating a bidding war.

This isn't quite the same as the Jon Singleton situation. Merrill proved himself at the MLB level during his rookie season in 2024. However, if that season ended up being the best in his career, he wouldn't be a total abnormality. And, unlike Tatis, Jackson can still test the free agency water in his prime unless another deal is signed between now and then that keeps him in San Diego longer.

John Seidler makes his mark

It was only a few months ago when the conversation around the San Diego Padres was that they were no longer going to be spending big money. Peter Seidler is, unfortunately, no longer around to throw around the weight of his fortune. In his place is his brother John Seidler, and the prevailing thought was that the unknown brother would err on the side of financial caution and efficiency.

This isn't that. This is a move that Peter Seidler would've made. This is a move that Peter Seidler would be proud of. This brings the Padres closer to World Series contention over the next decade.

With this move, the Padres have agree to spend over $100M annually just on their core of Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill and Xander Bogaerts. The 2025 Padres have the most expensive roster the team has ever seen besides the failed 2023 squad. They have blown past the collective bargaining tax and were already in the top 10 of MLB payrolls for this season before announcing the Merrill contract.

At this time last year...

I can't say enough about how much has changed for Jackson Merrill over the last year.

At this point last year, he was getting a shot to be the starting centerfielder for the San Diego Padres out of a lack of other options. He had never played the position before, previously working his way through the Padres system as a shortstop, and had never taken an MLB at-bat. I, among many others, were skeptical that this would work out.

One year later and Merrill has a Silver Slugger Award and an All-Star appearance to his name to go along with a long-term big-money contract with the San Diego Padres, where he's one of the team's best hitters and a candidate to win a Gold Glove some time soon.

I don't know anyone that could've predicted that all of those things, or even any of those things, could've happened or would've happened this quickly.

Six games into this Padres seasons, Merrill has an OPS of 1.035. His hitting and defense have both helped helped the Padres get off to the best start to a season in team history and now he's on a deal that will keep him affordable and in San Diego for about a decade.

When the Padres announced their 14-year, $340-million contract with Fernando Tatis Jr., I referred to it as a "statue contract". If he lives up to the promises of that contract, he'll eventually get a statue alongside Tony Gwynn and Trevor Hoffman at Petco Park. With the moves the team has made since then, they might need to also find space for statues for Manny Machado and, eventually, Jackson Merrill.